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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING AT THIS
TIME.  

NUMEROUS DROPSONDES LAUNCHED FROM THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE DEPRESSION REVEAL THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS NOT VERTICALLY
ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE CENTER.  UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...AND I AM NOT
SURE IF IT EVER WILL...SINCE THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING WITH MOST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR...NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. 
ALSO...THE DEPRESSION HAS TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND BEFORE
STRENGTHENING.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHARP
UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IT IS BEGINNING TO DISRUPT
THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT WHICH THE SYSTEM HAD
24 HOURS AGO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE
STATUS OR COULD STAY AS A SHEARED DEPRESSION. 

THE TRACK IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BY EVALUATING THE MODELS.
PREVIOUS GFDL TOOK THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO NORTHWEST FLORIDA AS A
HURRICANE WHILE THE NEW RUN KEEPS A WEAKER SYSTEM IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE AVN AND THE NOGAPS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE UK MOVES IT SOUTHWARD TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT ABOUT
TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WILL KEEP A GENERAL NORTHWEST
TRACK TROUGH 72 HOURS. 
 
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE DEPRESSION ON
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 20.9N  88.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 21.1N  88.8W    25 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N  89.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 22.3N  90.4W    35 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N  91.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 24.5N  92.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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