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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. 
HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. 
ASSUMING THAT THEY MOVE TOGETHER...THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WILL SPEND
LITTLE TIME OVER LAND...AND THERE IS THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT A
NEW CENTER COULD FORM TO THE RIGHT OF ONE WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING. 

AS EXPECTED...THE NEW GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS A SHORT-FUSE THREAT TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW MOTION INTO THE
GULF...BUT WITH VERY DIFFERENT RESPONSES TO THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED
BY THE UKMET...WHICH TAKES THE DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND THE GFDL AND LBAR...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ASSUMES THAT THE TROUGH WILL
NOT HAVE A LASTING IMPACT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...SHOULD
A NEW CENTER FORM SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT ONE THEN
THE GFDL AND LBAR TRACKS BECOME MORE LIKELY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS A DIFFICULT BALANCE BETWEEN THE
WARM WATERS IN THE GULF...THE POSSIBILITY OF A FAVORABLE TROUGH
INTERACTION IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF...AND SOME VERY STRONG SHEAR IN
THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE SLOW MOTION CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT AND THEREFORE WE
FORECAST HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 20.3N  87.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 20.6N  88.6W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     15/1800Z 21.2N  89.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.9N  90.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  91.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N  92.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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