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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000
FLORENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE AT 55
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS.
EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HIGHER LATITUDES.
FLORENCE IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FAST STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. ACCELERATION CONTINUES AND FLORENCE HAS TAKEN A
SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/31 KNOTS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SHOWS THE CENTER PASSING NEAR EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN ABOUT 18 HOURS.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 41.3N 56.5W 55 KTS
12HR VT 17/1800Z 45.3N 53.2W 50 KTS
24HR VT 18/0600Z 52.1N 51.3W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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