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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000

AN EYE WAS APPARENT ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES...AND BASED ON THIS
IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...TO
70 KNOTS.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT FLORENCE HAS PEAKED SINCE IT WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER...THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND BY 48 HOURS THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS OVER HIGHER LATITUDES.

FLORENCE IS NOW WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FAST STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION TODAY AND
MOTION IS NOW NE AROUND 31 KNOTS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED LEFTWARD AND SHOWS THE CENTER
PASSING NEAR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.   
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 37.4N  60.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 40.7N  56.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 46.0N  52.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 52.0N  50.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
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