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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000

FLORENCE HAS BEEN UPGRADED BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BASED ON A
EARLIER RECON REPORT AND AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/21.  FLORENCE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS A
RESULT...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICAL TRACK IS AN UPDATE
OF THE RPEVIOUS FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND UKMET
MODELS.  FLORENCE SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO OR JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA
DURING THE ENXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
 
THE INTENSITY IS HELD STEADY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE AFTERWARDS AS INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FLORENCE COULD
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 31.4N  66.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 33.3N  63.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 36.4N  58.9W    60 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 40.2N  55.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 44.4N  51.7W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     19/0000Z 53.9N  46.7W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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