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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000
 
FLORENCE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  CONSEQUENTLY IT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  FLORENCE SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR
OR JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WIND FIELD OR
PRESSURE FROM LATEST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE FLORENCE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 30.2N  69.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 30.9N  67.8W    50 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 33.5N  64.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 36.5N  60.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 42.0N  55.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 53.5N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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