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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DRIFT...120/02...BUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH QUICKLY ACCELERATING FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE
FASTER...MOVING FLORENCE NEAR BERMUDA IN 24 HOURS.  THE FORECAST
TRACK ACCELERATES THE MOTION TO 30 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS.  TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR BERMUDA.

SSM/I DATA INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE WEST
SIDE OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IS EXPECTED IN A CONDITION OF
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY REINTESIFICATION
UNTIL THE FORWARD MOTION ACCERATES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS
REDUCES THE VERTICAL SHEAR. 
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 29.0N  72.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 30.0N  70.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 32.3N  66.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 36.0N  62.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 41.0N  58.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 50.0N  51.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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