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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000

THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
FLORENCE IS SHEARED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
REACHES THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.  THERE COULD BE SOME LIMITED
STRENGTHENING ONCE FLORENCE BEGINS TO MOVE.
 
FLORENCE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT AN APPROACHING VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KICK FLORENCE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD CLOSE TO BERMUDA AND THEN TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  ON THIS TRACK FLORENCE MAY MOVE VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 29.2N  73.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 29.0N  72.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 30.0N  69.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 32.0N  66.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  63.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 47.0N  55.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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