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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EAST SIDE.  AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FOUND
THAT THE PRESSURE REMAINS AT 995 MB AND REPORTS PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 50 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THERE REMAINS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LIMITED STRENGTHENING
ONCE FLORENCE BEGINS TO MOVE...BUT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT IMPROVE APPRECIABLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 140/3.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPIC
REASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST.  A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CREATE AN INCREASING WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH
WILL ACCELERATE FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
CLOSE TO BERMUDA AND THEN TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ANCHORED BY THE GFDL...REMAINS VERY
CLOSE TO BERMUDA.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 29.2N  73.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 29.0N  72.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 30.0N  68.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 33.0N  65.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  62.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 47.0N  57.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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