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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2000

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN 1 MB FROM THE LAST MISSION...BUT FLIGHT
LEVEL AND DROPSONDE-MEASURED WINDS BARELY SUPPORT HURRICANE
INTENSITY.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM. 
FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND...ASSUMING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE
APPRECIABLY...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

LATEST FIXES SHOW A VERY SLOW DRIFT IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A BREAKDOWN OF THE WEAK MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  THE STEERING CURRENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK UNTIL
A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH DROPS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN INCREASING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE AVN
AND U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL TRACKS.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 30.8N  74.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  74.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  73.4W    75 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 31.2N  72.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 31.5N  70.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 34.0N  67.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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