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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000
 
RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN FLORENCE.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND...AT 850
MB...WAS 69 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE
CONVECTION IS NOT VERY COLD AND MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTER...BUT THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS BETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. 
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT PROVIDING MUCH OUTFLOW...IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO MAKE FLORENCE A HURRICANE. 

TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT FLORENCE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY
STATIONARY...AS FLORENCE SITS BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST...AND LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST.  A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE AVN AND
UKMET MODELS TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...AND A SECOND...STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SCOOP UP
FLORENCE AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE
MOTION FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW ACCELERATION TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 30.4N  73.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 30.5N  73.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.5N  73.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 30.7N  72.6W    70 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 32.0N  70.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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