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781 
WTNT44 KNHC 090012
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2000

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA INDICATE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THE PAST 2 DAYS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK IN A
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE CENTER
PASSING CLOSE TO CAMERON LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 8 TO 10 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS SO BROAD...LANDFALL
ANYWHERE BETWEEN PORT ARTHUR TEXAS AND INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
IS POSSIBLE.  ALMOST ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A 10 TO 12
KT FORWARD MOTION...SO THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE
DIURNAL COVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD LATER TONIGHT.  AS THE DEPRESSION
NEARS THE COAST WHERE A COOL SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER
WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. 
ALSO...WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS.  SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN PASSING SQUALLS.
 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0800Z 29.8N  93.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 30.5N  93.5W    30 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING
24HR VT     10/0000Z 32.6N  93.3W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATED