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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2000

THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHEARING CHRIS AND DEBBY HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST
TWO OR THREE WEEKS AND IS NOW SHEARING ERNESTO.  THIS HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE PATTERN IS RATHER UNUSUAL DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEASON.

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP ERNESTO AS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME.  IN ADDITION...A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2200 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL POINTS WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS TO NORTH OF THE CENTER.  

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON PARTIALLY REMOVING THE UPPER-
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  IF
ERNESTO SURVIVES THAT LONG...IT COULD STRENGTHEN.  THIS IS SUGGESTED
BY EVERY SINGLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE MIT EXPERIMENTAL MODEL
WHICH KEEPS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE PRESENCE OF AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT COULD BE A REAL TEST FOR MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS ERNESTO WITH 35 KNOTS BECAUSE THERE ARE
NO SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR IS RELAXING AS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY MODELS.

THE FORECAST TRACK APPEARS TO BE LESS COMPLICATED.  A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALMOST GUARANTEES A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS. IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 18.4N  53.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.3N  55.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N  58.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N  60.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  62.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 26.5N  64.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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