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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD A
NORTH-NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS MOTION IS THE RESULT OF
AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM AND A RIDGE DEVELOPING
TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT LEFT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
REMAINING EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS SHEAR
IS DOMINATING THE NEARBY ENVIRONMENT AND NO INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 17.8N  52.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N  54.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 19.9N  57.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.1N  59.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.2N  61.7W    35 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.0N  65.0W    35 KTS
 
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