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HURRICANE DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000

DEBBY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS ANTICIPATED BASED ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND WIND REPORTS FROM THE VARIOUS RECONNAISSANCE PLANES THAT HAVE
BEEN IN DEBBY DURING THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS.  THERE ARE ONLY A FEW
SPOTS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 998
MB...A VALUE WHICH...ON AVERAGE IS HIGH FOR A HURRICANE.  ALTHOUGH
THE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING WESTWARD...THERE ARE SOME UPPER-
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. AS LONG AS THIS
SHEAR PERSISTS...NO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DEBBY WILL BE MOVING
NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WILL
PROBABLY CUT THE INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR INTENSIFICATION AND BOTH GFDL AND THE COUPLED GFDL MAKE DEBBY A
VERY STRONG HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR NO CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DEBBY IS MOVING
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. 
 
DATA FROM SEVERAL DROPWINDSONDES RELEASED THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT
A 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES TO NORTH OF DEBBY AND THAT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS 
MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY.  PERHAPS...THIS IS THE REASON WHY
DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND
DEBBY WILL RESUME ITS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.   ON THIS TRACK...DEBBY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN 72 HOURS.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE
GFDL..UK AND THE FSU EXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE.  

DEBBY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 19.4N  67.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.3N  70.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  72.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 22.0N  74.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 23.0N  76.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 26.0N  79.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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