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HURRICANE DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000
 
A RAGGED 25NM DIAMETER EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE SAN JUAN RADAR DATA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE SPUN UP SMALL
EYEWALL MESOVORTICES WHICH HAVE DISTORTED THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE
EYE.  THIS HAS MADE IT A DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE EXACT POSITION
OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY.  SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE
INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WHILE THE
OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/18.  DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS AND TO
NORTHEAST OF DEBBY.  ALL THE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON MAINTAINING A
WEAKENESS IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH 48 TO 72
HOURS.  HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE TRICKY
IN DETERMINING JUST HOW WEAK AND BROAD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
WILL BE. THE 12 UKMET MODEL IS NOW 120 NM WEST OF THE PREVIOUS 00Z 
3 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN IS ALREADY TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CURRENT POSITION.  BASED ON THE NEW 12 AVN MODEL RUN
BRINGING DEBBY CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA IN 72 HOURS...WE SEE NO
REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKMET...AND THE AVN
MODEL.  THERE IS ALSO LESS DIVERGENCE AMONG THE OTHER FORECAST
MODELS WHICH ARE NOW CONVERGING ON OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

THE RAPID MOTION OF DEBBY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT 
INTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING FOR PROBABLY THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN 36
HOURS...SOME SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF HISPANIOLA MAY ALSO HINDER
THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  HOWEVER...AFTER 48 HOURS...DEBBY WILL
BE CLEAR OF ANY LAND EFFECTS AND BE OVER VERY WARM WATER.  WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEP UPEPR-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE EAST ACTING AS A MASS SINK...SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AND DEBBY COULD POSSIBLY BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  IN FACT...THE NEW GFDL MODEL RUN TAKES
DEBBY DOWN TO AROUND 935 MB IN 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 19.1N  66.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.8N  68.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N  72.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N  74.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N  76.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 25.0N  78.5W    90 KTS
 
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