HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2000
CORRECTION...INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS
 
THE CENTER IS RELOCATED NORTHWARD BASED ON RADAR IMAGES FROM
GUADELOUPE AND ON A RECENT AIR FORCE RECON FIX.  EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 N
MI...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE
GFDL...UKMET...GFDL RUN OFF OF NOGAPS...AVN AND FSU EXPERIMENTAL ALL
SHOW THIS.  ONLY THE UKMET HINTS AT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THIS
IS AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
RECON REPORTS THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE DROPPED 8 MB IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS TO 996 MB.  THIS AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A NORTHERN HALF OF AN EYE
WALL FEATURE ON THE GUADELOUPE RADAR ARE THE FIRST SIGNS THAT DEBBIE
MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 75 KNOTS IN 24
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 17.2N  61.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 17.8N  63.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 18.7N  67.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 19.4N  70.8W    65 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 20.6N  73.7W    70 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 23.0N  78.0W    80 KTS

 
NNNN