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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2000
 
THE EXACT CENTER OF DEBBY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS HAD A HARD TIME CLOSING OFF A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE
CENTER REMAINS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...RECON ALSO FOUND 88 KT WINDS AT 1000 FT IN
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE APPARENT CENTER.   BASED ON THE
SEVERAL WIND REPORTS OF 80 TO 88 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KT.  WE HAVE KEPT DEBBY JUST BELOW MINIMAL HURRICANE
INTENSITY DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/19.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH REMAINS STRONG AND SHOULD KEEP DEBBY ON A GENERAL WEST
OR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND OVER THE BAHAMAS WHICH MAY ACT TO DECREASE THE FORWARD
SPEED AND ALLOW FOR SOME POLEWARD MOTION TO OCCUR AFTER 48 HOURS. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES DEBBY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN
72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE UKMET MODELS.  NOTE...THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY CREATE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
THE TRACK AND IF DEBBY TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE OF
HISPANIOLA...THEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD CUBA IS POSSIBLE IN
72 HOURS.

SLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE WIND AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
OF DEBBY...IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS JUST A LITTLE BIT AND THE LOW-LEVEL
AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED...THEN WE
COULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONGER AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 15.7N  57.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.2N  60.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N  63.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.0N  67.2W    75 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.0N  70.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 21.0N  75.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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