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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES AND INCREASED DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 40 KT AND MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IMPROVING.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16.  THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO CONVECTIVE REORGANIZATION...
BUT IT SHOULD BE NEAR OR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DEBBY ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL...UKMET AND THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND SHOULD
REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THEREAFTER...SOME SHEAR MAY SLOW DOWN
THE INTENSIFICATION RATE AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 14.3N  49.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N  52.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N  55.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.8N  58.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N  61.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 19.0N  68.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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