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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000
CHANGE DEPRESSION NAME FROM "TEST" TO "SEVEN" IN HEADER
 
THE NORTH/SOUTH LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  A RECENT QUICKSCAT PUTS A
CENTER NEAR 10N.  TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 11.7N AND 12.3N RESPECTIVELY.
THE OFFICIAL POSITION IS AT 12.5N WHICH IS CLOSER TO A COLD
SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE.  IF THE CENTER IS UNDER THIS CDO...WE COULD
HAVE A 50K KNOT STORM...BUT IF IT IS FURTHER SOUTH...THE SYSTEN
COULD BE DISORGANIZED.  IN ANY CASE THE FORECAST IS FOR
STRENGTHENING TO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS 80 KNOTS IN 72
HOURS.
 
THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL
SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 72 HOURS.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS INFLUENCED BY THIS FEATURE AND SHOW A
CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKMET AND THREATENS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN 72 HOURS AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
WE ARE PROBABLY ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AWAY FROM NEEDING A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 12.6N  46.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 13.2N  48.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 14.0N  51.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 14.9N  54.3W    60 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.7N  57.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N  64.5W    70 KTS
 
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