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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS
BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  CREDIT IS GIVEN TO THE
GLOBAL MODELS...BOTH MRF AND UK...WHICH SYSTEMATICALLY HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING THIS DEVELOPMENT.  BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF
2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS SHIP
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.  THE
DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE  ENVELOPE...THERE IS NO SHEAR...THE OCEAN IS
WARM AND WITH THESE THREE PARAMETERS SO FAVORABLE...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS IN 48
HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLOW COMPARED TO SHIPS...WHICH
BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 90 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CURRENT BROAD CIRCULATION
BECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE.  BEST ESTIMATE
IS 280/15.  IT IS FORECAST THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PERSIST AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN.  THIS WOULD
FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THIS FORECAST MOTION IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...THE UK...LBAR AND CLIMATOLOGY. AS
ANTICIPATED...BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE BRING
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE EITHER TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OR JUST SOUTH OF
CUBA. 
 
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS IN CASE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES AS FORECAST.  

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 12.4N  45.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.8N  47.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 13.5N  50.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 14.5N  53.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N  57.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N  64.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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