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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000
AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CHRIS HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. RECON FOUND A VORTEX IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION...WHILE SATELLITE INDICATES A GOOD MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE RECON AND SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 35 KT...MAINLY IN SQUALLS. OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS
NOW AND IMPROVING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE STORM MOTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE BROAD CENTER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF CHRIS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE UKMET IS FARTHER NORTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFDL...GFDN...AND GFDU MODELS
KEEP CHRIS FARTHER SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND STILL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS REFORMS FARTHER WEST...
THEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMES BETTER DEFINED...LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS THAT CHRIS HAS ENTRAINED SOME DRY AIR INTO THE EAST
SEMICIRCLE WHICH HAS DELAYED THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. HOWEVER...
IF CHRIS SLOWS DOWN THEN THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS CHRIS TO 69 KT IN 72
HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 17.0N 56.8W 35 KTS
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W 35 KTS
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.7N 60.2W 45 KTS
36HR VT 20/0600Z 19.7N 62.2W 50 KTS
48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.7N 64.4W 55 KTS
72HR VT 21/1800Z 22.3N 68.7W 60 KTS
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