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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2000
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND CONFINED TO A FEW CLUSTERS
WHILE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES.   IT IS HIGHLY
SURPRISING TO SEE THIS DEPRESSION NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME
SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND THE OCEAN IS WARM.  OBVIOUSLY THERE IS
MORE TO STRENGTHENING THAN THESE TWO FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.
HOWEVER... SINCE THESE TWO IMPORTANT PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.  THIS IS ALSO BASED ON SHIPS AND THE GFDL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.
 
DURING THE CURRENT FORMATIVE STAGE...BOTH INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE CENTER MAY BE REFORMING A LITTLE
BIT TO THE NORTH WHERE THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING.  THE OVERALL
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY A WEAK TO MODERATE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE
WEATHER... WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION TO THE LEFT...COULD
BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOME OF THE NORTHERNMOST ISLANDS.
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE DEPRESSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 15.4N  54.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.6N  55.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N  56.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  58.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  60.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  65.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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