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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000
 
AIR FORCE RECON...SATELLITE...AND RADAR SHOW THE POORLY DEFINED
CENTER OF BERYL REACHED THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AT 06Z.  THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION UNDER STEERING FROM A HIGH
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES THE
STORM INLAND OVER MEXICO WHERE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A DAY OR
SO.

RECON SHOWED WINDS TO 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER
NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO.  ALSO A SHIP JUST OUT OF TAMPICO
REPORTED 35 KNOTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SO THE WIND SPEED IS PUT
AT 40 KNOTS AT 09Z AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO WILL BE CONTINUED FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR
THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF ANY STRONG WINDS AND
WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED THERE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 24.2N  98.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     15/1800Z 24.3N  99.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     16/0600Z 24.8N 100.7W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     16/1800Z 25.5N 102.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
  
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