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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000
 
AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT IN BERYL THIS EVENING HAS HAD SOME
DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING A SPECIFIC CENTER. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED
GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN SEEN IN THE BROWNSVILLE
WSR-88D RADAR REFLECTIVITY PATTERN. SMALL CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE
BEEN FIRING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN THE SPINUP OF SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN IN RADAR
ANIMATIONS...AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON RECON SURFACE AND FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS...AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THE BROAD CENTER OF BERYL
SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON A 
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL.
 
THE STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION CAN LOCALLY SPINUP WINDS TO 50 OR 55
KT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT BERYL WILL
REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD AT
45 KT IN 12 HOURS EVEN THOUGH BERYL WILL BE INLAND. THIS WAS DONE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION WHICH COULD STILL BE OVER WATER AT THAT TIME. THE WIND
RADII WERE ALSO SHIFTED MORE TOWARD THE EAST SEMICIRCLE TO ACCOUNT
FOR LAND INTERACTION TO THE WEST. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 24.3N  97.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 24.8N  98.4W    45 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     16/0000Z 25.3N  99.8W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
36HR VT     16/1200Z 25.8N 101.4W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATED
 
 
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