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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED DILIGENTLY
TO FIND THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING RESEMBLED A TROUGH AXIS RATHER THAN A TRUE
CENTER.  BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE MISSION...A REASONABLE CENTER WAS
LOCATED AND WE THANK THE CREW FOR THEIR HARD WORK.  WITH THIS FIX
THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE FASTER THAN BEFORE...ABOUT 7 OR 8
KT.  THIS MEANS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL SOONER...
PERHAPS IN 12-18 HOURS...WHICH LESSENS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT BERYL
WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...THEN THE HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REPLACED WITH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS THIS EVENING.
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WESTNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED FOR SPEED BUT THE
LANDFALL POINT REMAINS THE SAME...SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND THE
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.  MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS ARE WELL EAST
OF THE CENTER.  AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED FOR
THE TIME BEING...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY RAPID INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
BUT NOT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 24.2N  96.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 24.6N  97.4W    55 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 25.2N  98.7W    45 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     16/0600Z 25.9N 100.3W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     16/1800Z 26.5N 102.5W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     17/1800Z ...DISSIPATED... 
 
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