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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE DEPRESSION IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BERYL WITH THIS ADVISORY.  THEY ALSO
FOUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAD REFORMED TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL THOUGHT TO BE
310/5...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...THE UNCERTAINTY IS MAINLY WITH THE SPEED.

THERE HAS BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND
WITH THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND WE ARE FORECASTING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  THIS IN SPITE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE SYSTEM DID PASS OVER AN AREA OF
UNUSUALLY HIGH HEAT CONTENT THIS MORNING THAT MAY HAVE BEEN INVOLVED
WITH THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 23.6N  95.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 24.1N  96.4W    55 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 24.7N  97.3W    65 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 25.6N  98.3W    50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  99.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     17/1200Z 28.0N 103.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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