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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.  WHILE THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO LOCATE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...IT DID
FIND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 30
KT.  THE UPGRADE IS BASED ON THESE WINDS...AND THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  
 
A DEFINITE CENTER WILL LIKELY BE ELUSIVE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-
24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. 
THE 12Z AVN TAKES THE SYSTEM INLAND IN SOUTH TEXAS IN 48 HOURS...BUT
THE INITIAL POSITION IN THE MODEL APPEARS TO BE ALREADY TOO FAR TO
THE NORTHWEST.   GIVEN THE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE INITIAL LOCATION AND
MOTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BUT IS A LITTLE
SLOWER.

RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A SYSTEM THIS ILL-DEFINED IS UNLIKELY. 
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SYSTEM LINGER OVER THE GULF LONGER THAN
FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 23.0N  93.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 23.0N  93.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 24.1N  93.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 25.4N  95.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 26.5N  97.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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