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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2000
 
WHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS INCREASED IN CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY...THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL LOOKS RAGGED
DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR.  ADDITIONALLY...REPORTS FROM BUOY 41010
SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST THE TIGHT WIND CORE IT HAD OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  DOPPLER WIND DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D
DOES NOT SHOW ANY TROPICAL STORM WINDS AT THIS TIME.  THUS...THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND NOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING 035/6.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS HAVING MORE AFFECT ON THE
DEPRESSION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THE DEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND BERMUDA...WITH THE ONLY DISAGREEMENT BEING
HOW FAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THIS IS TO
GUARD AGAINST THIS BEING A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER RATHER THAN A
TRUE MOTION.

WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR...LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS WILL DECREASE AS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WEAKEN THE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS WOULD ALLOW A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AFTER 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY
FORECAST BOTH FOLLOW THIS IDEA...WITH THE FORECAST CALL FOR LESS
INTENSIFICATION THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CURRENT LACK OF
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 28.9N  78.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 29.7N  78.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 30.6N  77.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 31.6N  76.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 32.5N  74.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 35.0N  70.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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