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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2000
 
MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR TEMPORARILY SHOWED WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL DEPRESSION.  WE ARE WAITING TO
SEE A MORE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR A SIGN OF
STRENGTHENING.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE KEEPING THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED UNTIL THE
DEPRESSION MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE SHEAR
RELAXES.  BY THEN...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION
REACHES TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. 
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ABOUT 300/5.  THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BEGIN TO
STEER THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS EXCEPT CLIMATOLOGY WHICH BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 28.4N  79.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 28.8N  80.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 29.5N  80.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 30.5N  79.8W    35 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 31.5N  78.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     13/0600Z 33.5N  74.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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