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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 09 2000
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIS EVENING...AS IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION.  BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER...HAS BEEN REPORTING WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/5...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE
DEPRESSION IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
TROPICAL WAVE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
CURRENT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE LIFTS OUT...AND ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  ONLY THE LBAR
INDICATES A LANDFALL ON THE UPPER FLORIDA COAST.  I HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BECAUSE
OF THE CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION THIS EVENING AND BECAUSE I AM
UNSURE WHETHER THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW CAN BE ESTABLISHED AS
QUICKLY AS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND AM THEREFORE ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

UNTIL THE DEPRESSION CAN MAINTAIN CONVECTION IT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME INTENSIFYING.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND AT THAT TIME
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TINY TROPICAL STORM.  BY THIS TIME THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALREADY BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST.  GIVEN THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE FACT THAT I AM WELL LEFT OF
THE GUIDANCE...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 28.2N  78.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 28.4N  79.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 28.9N  80.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 29.7N  80.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  79.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 32.5N  76.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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