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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  60
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/05.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF ALBERTO WHICH SHOULD KEEP ITS FORWARD
MOTION SLOW UNTIL AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES GETS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE RATHER SLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY NORTHWARD WITH A MODEST INCREASE
IN FOREWARD SPEED TO 9 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.

AN EXCELLENT LARGE EYE CONTINUES.  WARM WATERS ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING UNTIL ALBERTO GETS NORTH OF 40 DEG LAT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 35.2N  48.3W    70 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 35.8N  48.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 36.9N  48.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 38.2N  48.3W    75 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 39.5N  48.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 43.0N  46.5W    60 KTS
  
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