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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 60
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/05. THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF ALBERTO WHICH SHOULD KEEP ITS FORWARD
MOTION SLOW UNTIL AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES GETS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE RATHER SLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY NORTHWARD WITH A MODEST INCREASE
IN FOREWARD SPEED TO 9 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.
AN EXCELLENT LARGE EYE CONTINUES. WARM WATERS ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING UNTIL ALBERTO GETS NORTH OF 40 DEG LAT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 35.2N 48.3W 70 KTS
12HR VT 19/1200Z 35.8N 48.5W 75 KTS
24HR VT 20/0000Z 36.9N 48.7W 75 KTS
36HR VT 20/1200Z 38.2N 48.3W 75 KTS
48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 48.0W 75 KTS
72HR VT 22/0000Z 43.0N 46.5W 60 KTS
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