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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  59
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000
 
ALBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASED ON 75
KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
PHILOSOPHY.  ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE...AND THEN
GRADUALLY GET PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE MIAN INFLUENCE BY THE TROUGH SHOULD BE TO STEER THE
SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TRACKS...AND NEAR THE GFDL AND
UKMET SOULTIONS.
 
ALBERTO WILL REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.  THIS IS IN LINE
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 35.1N  48.3W    75 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 36.1N  48.7W    80 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 37.5N  48.8W    85 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 38.9N  48.6W    80 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 40.5N  48.2W    75 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 43.6N  46.8W    65 KTS
 
 
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