HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2000

ALBERTO HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
TERMS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED
RING OF CONVECTION...A POSSIBLE EYEWALL.  HOWEVER...T-NUMBER
INDICATE THAT THE MAX WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 55 KNOTS.  SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE GFDL
AND SHIPS MODEL.
 
ALBERTO HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS.  A DEVELOPING TROUGH SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ALREADY ERODING THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
OF ALBERTO.  THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER ALBERTO ON A SLOW
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOST
OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE GENERAL
NORTHWARD AND SLOW MOTION.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 33.4N  46.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 33.8N  47.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 34.5N  48.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 35.5N  48.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 37.0N  48.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 40.0N  48.0W    75 KTS
 
 
NNNN