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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2000
 
THE CONVECTIVE BANDING PATTERN NEAR THE CENTER HAS IMPROVED OF LATE.
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD THERE FOR NOW.  THE IMPROVED PRESENTATION IS
CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS
INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ALBERTO TO
RETURN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH BACK INTO COOLER WATERS AS
WELL AS CROSS ITS OWN PATH...SO THE INTENSIFICATION FORECAST LEVELS
OFF AFTER 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/8...WITH A HINT IN THE LAST FEW IMAGES
THAT THE SOUTHWARD MOTION HAS ENDED.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS
UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATES THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

ALBERTO HAS NOW MAINTAINED AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LONGER
THAN ALL AUGUST TROPICAL CYCLONES SINCE 1900 IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR HURRICANE FELIX IN 1995.  IF ALBERTO MAINTAINS
STORM STATUS UNTIL TOMORROW AT 5 PM...IT WILL SURPASS FELIX FOR
AUGUST LONGEVITY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 32.9N  45.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  46.4W    55 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 33.5N  47.8W    60 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 34.5N  48.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 35.5N  49.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 38.0N  49.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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