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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2000
 
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN ALBERTO THIS MORNING AS WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDS CONTINUE NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 35 KT...30 KT... AND 30 KT. 
HOWEVER...WITH THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND EARLIER SHIP
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 40 KT. 
ANOTHER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD HELP DETERMINE IF ALBERTO IS WEAKENING FURTHER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/8.  CONVENTIONAL INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF ALBERTO. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THAT ALBERTO SHOULD MOVE AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THIS...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT BEING HOW QUICKLY THE STORM WILL
TURN NORTHWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  THE AVN...THE
BAM MODELS...AND THE UKMET FAVOR A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 48
HR... WHILE THE GFDL...LBAR...AND NHC90 INDICATE MORE WESTERLY
MOTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD
GRADUALLY WARMER WATERS.  THE AVN AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT CURRENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 48 HR...WHILE THE
UKMET KEEPS SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN PLACE.  SINCE THE SOUTH SIDES OF
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONES ARE OFTEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTS FOR
INTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN CALLING FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEYOND 36
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 35.2N  40.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 34.6N  41.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 34.0N  43.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 33.7N  45.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 34.0N  47.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 35.5N  49.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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