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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000
 
WHAT CONVECTION THAT IS LEFT WITH ALBERTO IS DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE 25 TO 30 KT...BUT ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
APPLICABLE FOR THIS SEMI-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  ADVANCED MICROWAVE
SOUNDER UNIT DATA FROM 11Z THIS MORNING...COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS WEB PAGE...STILL SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE.
ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME
REINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS ALBERTO
PASSES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC.
 
ALBERTO CONTINUES TO EXECUTE AN ANTICYCLONIC TURN AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 225/8.  A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  THE AVN AND UKMET GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO ERODING AS THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST ADVANCES EASTWARD.  A
SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF NORTH AMERICA IN TWO DAYS AND
SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO LIFT ALBERTO MORE NORTHWARD.  THE UKMET IS MUCH
STRONGER IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECOND TROUGH AND THEREFORE
INDICATES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN THE GFDL...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL WITH ALBERTO...AND
THE UKMET.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 36.4N  39.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 35.7N  40.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 35.2N  41.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 34.8N  43.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 34.5N  45.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 35.5N  47.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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