HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/07.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...CONTINUING THE TRACK IN AN
ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE OF...THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO IS PRETTY MUCH DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A SHIP REPORT KEEP THE WIND SPEED
AT 45 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE STORM OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER SSTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED
THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 37.8N  38.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 37.0N  39.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 36.5N  40.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 36.0N  42.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 35.7N  43.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 35.5N  47.0W    40 KTS
  
NNNN