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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED CHANGE IN COURSE IS NOW COMING ABOUT.  OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS...ALBERTO CAME TO A SCREECHING HALT AND IT IS NOW
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.  FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALBERTO SHOULD BE
STEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/06 AND A TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
THIS IS A MUCH MORE DRASTIC TURN THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER
ADVISORIES...BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN
AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND NOGAPS MODEL
RUNS. 

THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING AND AS SUCH IT
IS HARD TO CLASSIFY THIS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS AND A VERY SLOW SPINDOWN OF THIS LARGE
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST.  IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD...SAY 24 HOURS...WE WOULD LIKELY
CLASSIFY ALBERTO AS NON-TROPICAL.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 38.6N  38.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 37.8N  38.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 37.0N  39.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 36.5N  40.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  42.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W    30 KTS
 
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