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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/20 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
THEN WEST.  THE BASIS FOR THIS IS THE STEERING PROVIDED BY A HIGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AROUND WHICH THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING
FOR MUCH OF ITS EXISTENCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO...AND AN UPDATE OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALBERTO.  THE
FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK
MOVES THE CENTER BACK OVER 25 DEGREE C WATER AFTER 48 HOURS AND THIS
COULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DECREASING VERY FAST.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL CLOUD ZONE FOR SOME
TIME AND... ALTHOUGH NOT FORECAST...THIS COULD PROVIDE FOR AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 39.0N  41.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 38.6N  39.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 37.0N  39.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 36.5N  40.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 36.3N  41.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 36.0N  42.5W    35 KTS
  
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