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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2000
 
ALBERTO HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND THE EYE.  THE HURRICANE HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN IN
ALL QUADS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 90
KT AND 77 KT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75
KT.
 
ALBERTO CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING AS IT BEGINS THE
RECURVATURE AND IS NOW MOVING AT 345/13.  ALL LARGE-SCALE AND NHC
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HR IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  WATER
VAPOR AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE GUIDANCE.
   
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK ALBERTO WILL ENTER COOLER WATER IN 24
TO 36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THAT
TIME...THEN WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATER.  BY 72 HOURS...ALBERTO
SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 30.6N  58.1W    75 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 32.5N  58.5W    85 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 34.8N  57.9W    85 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 37.7N  55.8W    85 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 40.5N  51.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 45.0N  38.0W    70 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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