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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2000
AFTER LOOKING LIKE IT WAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH A FEW HOURS
AGO...THE ORGANIZATION OF ALBERTO HAS ONCE AGAIN IMPROVED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A FAINT EYE BEING VISIBLE.
THE STORM LOOKS LESS ELONGATED THAN EARLIER...SUGGESTING THAT
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS HAVING LESS
IMPACT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA
ARE 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.
ALBERTO CONTINUES MOVING 320/18 AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL LARGE-SCALE AND NHC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 72 HR IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WATER VAPOR AND
CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE GUIDANCE. ONE DISAGREEMENT HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE MODELS AFTER RECURVATURE. ONE CLUSTER...INCLUDING
THE GFDL...GFDN...AND LBAR...TURN ALBERTO MORE TO THE EAST AT A
SLOWER SPEED. A SECOND CLUSTER...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
AVN...CALLS FOR A FASTER MORE NORTHEASTERLY MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES...CALLING FOR A
MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.
ALBERTO IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN...AS ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK THE SYSTEM WOULD ENTER COOLER WATER IN 24 TO 36 HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THAT TIME...
THEN WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATER. BY 72 HOURS...ALBERTO SHOULD
BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 29.5N 57.3W 65 KTS
12HR VT 11/0600Z 31.5N 58.7W 70 KTS
24HR VT 11/1800Z 34.3N 58.7W 75 KTS
36HR VT 12/0600Z 37.1N 57.0W 75 KTS
48HR VT 12/1800Z 39.5N 53.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 13/1800Z 43.5N 43.5W 60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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