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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 09 2000
 
ALBERTO HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
OCCASIONAL APPEARANCE OF A BANDING EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALL 65 KT...SO ALBERTO IS UPGRADED BACK TO MINIMAL
HURRICANE STATUS.

THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING 320/19.  THE ACCELERATION APPEARS TO BE
DUE TO THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE
CURRENT SPEED IS NOT LIKELY TO LAST AFTER ALBERTO MOVES AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LOW.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FORECAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY RECURVE ALBERTO.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
CALL FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND EVEN EAST OF NORTH BY 72
HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...WITH SOME DECELERATION AS
ALBERTO MOVES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 
THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL QUITE ASYMMETRIC AS UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS BLOWING ACROSS THE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE
FASTER FORWARD MOTION HAS REDUCED THE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR...
ALLOWING ALBERTO TO STRENGTHEN.  CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48 HR AS ALBERTO MOVES OVER WARM
WATER.  AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION.
 
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALBERTO PASSING WELL EAST OF
BERMUDA...RESIDENTS OF THE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE STORM UNTIL IT HAS SAFELY PASSED.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 24.0N  52.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 25.8N  53.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 28.2N  56.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 30.5N  57.7W    80 KTS
48HR VT     11/1800Z 33.0N  58.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     12/1800Z 37.5N  58.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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