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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2000
 
THE JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY NOW LOOKS LIKE A TRUE MOTION
AS ALBERTO HAS CONTINUED ON A TRACK OF 325/12 THIS EVENING.  THUS IT
APPEARS THAT THE TURN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
STARTING TO VERIFY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
INDICATES A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. 
WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION WELL ESTABLISHED...AND AS ANTICIPATED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE NORTH OF ALBERTO...ANOTHER TEMPORARY TURN TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ALBERTO IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
EARLIER AND THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE
DOWN TO 45-55 KT AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AND SO SOME REINTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 20.0N  47.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 21.1N  48.9W    55 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 22.4N  51.1W    55 KTS
36HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  53.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  55.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     12/0000Z 28.5N  58.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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