HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON AUG 07 2000
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE HURRICANE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 77 KT.  THUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 80 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.  NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN A WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION AND AN ALMOST NORTH MOTION (VICBAR).  HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND
BAMD MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD GUIDANCE. 
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IN BEST
AGREE WITH THE BAMM.

AN SSM/I OVERPASS THIS MORNING DID NOT SHOW AN EYE...AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST.  IT THUS APPEARS THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS...LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THE STORM WILL
ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER 48 HR IF IT FOLLOWS THE
FORECAST TRACK.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING AT 72 HR.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE GFDN SHOWS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO OVER 100 KT AFTER 48 HR.  THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ALBERTO COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 48 HR
AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 16.6N  42.8W    80 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.0N  44.6W    80 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 17.9N  47.1W    80 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.8N  49.1W    80 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  51.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 23.0N  55.0W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN