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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 06 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10...WHICH REPRESENTS A BIT OF A RIGHTWARD
TURN.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BEYOND 36-48
HOURS IS BECOMING COMPELLING...AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE HAS NOW
JUMPED ON THE BANDWAGON.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MAJOR TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF ALBERTO...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A PIECE OF THIS TROUGH WILL HANG BACK ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 77 KT...AND THE
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...THE EYE
HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALBERTO MAY HAVE PEAKED...AT LEAST FOR NOW.  A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK WILL LIMIT ACCESS TO WARM WATER AND INCREASE THE
SHEAR.  LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SHORT TERM OSCILLATIONS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 15.4N  37.2W    75 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 15.7N  38.8W    75 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 16.2N  41.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 16.7N  43.7W    75 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N  46.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  50.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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