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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2000
 
GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE MRF...DID NOT FORECAST STRENGTHENING
AND INDEED ALBERTO IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...THE EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES ARE NO
LONGER OBSERVED AND THE OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL DEFINED. IT APPEARS THAT
THE UNEXPECTED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
BROUGHT ALBERTO TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...ALBERTO
STILL HAS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME.  SHIPS INTENSITY AS WELL AS THE MIT EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST
MODELS INSIST ON STRENGTHENING WHILE THE 06 UTC GFDL RUN MAINTAINS
THE STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND
AND THE MARGINAL SST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS ALBERTO AT 50 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN ALBERTO APPROACHES WARMER WATERS. 
THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

ALBERTO IS STILL MOVING 285/13 BUT ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BUILD. CONSEQUENTLY
...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GFDL...THE UK AND THE MRFX MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 14.4N  30.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.7N  32.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.3N  35.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 16.0N  38.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N  41.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N  47.5W    65 KTS
 
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