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239 
WTNT42 KNHC 250250
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000

...CORRECTED DISCUSSION NUMBER TO 3...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SO
INITIAL WINDS ARE HELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH IS QUITE SENSITIVE
TO SST...DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.  OUR BEST
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE SHIPS MODEL...CONTINUES TO INDICATE
STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM BY 36 HOURS AS IN THE LAST ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
TRACKS DERIVED FROM THE AVN AND U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL
MODELS...NHC98 AND NHC98UK RESPECTIVELY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 10.2N  32.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 10.4N  35.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 10.9N  38.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 11.4N  41.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 12.0N  45.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 13.5N  51.5W    45 KTS