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256 
WTNT42 KNHC 242033
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000
 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CENTERS.  CONVECTION IS NOT VERY
DEEP AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL.  SATELLITE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.  BOTH THE UKMET AND AVN MAINTAIN A STRONG 500 MB HIGH NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST UPDATES THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE LBAR
GUIDANCE.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN DEFERENCE TO
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...OUR BEST GUIDANCE.  SSTS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY WARM...AND ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE PATH OF THE
DEPRESSION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 57 KT IN 72
HOURS...BUT THE UKMET AND GFDL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.  CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD ALSO ARGUE AGAINST THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ANYTIME SOON.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 10.0N  31.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 10.1N  33.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 10.2N  36.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 10.5N  40.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 11.0N  43.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 12.0N  50.5W    45 KTS