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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2000
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE
OF UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. WESTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL...OUR MOST
SKILLFUL INTENSITY FORECAST TOOL...INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD START TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS ONES AND ALSO RESEMBLES THE ONE PRODUCED BY THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...EXCEPT SLOWER.
EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY PREDICTION...INTERESTS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 20.5N 93.0W 25 KTS
12HR VT 08/1800Z 21.0N 93.5W 25 KTS
24HR VT 09/0600Z 21.5N 94.0W 30 KTS
36HR VT 09/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W 35 KTS
48HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 95.0W 35 KTS
72HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 96.0W 35 KTS
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